Page 5.961 ( 1945)
Kinds of Accidents
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Decisions, Decisions; ...Marginal Conditions; ...Emergencies Do Happen; ...An Emergency is not an Emergency; ...An FAA Accident; ...Accidents Happen; ...Pre-Accident Sequence; ...Accident Frequency; ...Order of Accident Likelihood; ...Controlled Accidents; ...When Everything Stops; …Common Causes of Accidents; …Common Elements of all Accidents; ...Maneuvering Accident Situations; ...Survival Checklist; ...The Six C’s of Survival; ...S---Happens to You, too; .. Use Common Sense; ....KIT, ... The Enemy; ...
Emergency Response; ... Survival Necessities; ...Fear Has Symptoms; ...Response and Options; ...Survival is Pre-Determined by What You Are; ...Mind Set is Essential; ...Pre-Planning Your Accident Survival; The Accident; ...First Aid; ...Post Accident; ...Average Time of Initiation of Search; ... Emergency Kit; ...Survival Requires Knowledge, Skill and Luck; ...Probabilities; ...Unintended Consequences; ...Glossary; ...

Decisions, Decisions
There are many things that can go wrong or create problems. Most of these will occur only once a lifetime but some more often. A pilot who has developed safe flight habits and sound judgment is going to have fewer mishaps. This pilot has reserved for himself the right to deviate in his flying procedures from genius to idiot. The opportunities for idiotic behavior far exceeds that of genius but this pilots information-processing brain will deviate toward genius since that has been the area of his training and experience.

My kind of pilot has remained mentally active. The mental seeing what is expected or habitual does not fool him. He is curious, critical and full of anticipation. His stress level is kept low because he is prepared, ahead of the aircraft, practiced in his procedures, and flying with 'what if' always on his mind.
What to Watch for:
--Mechanical systems malfunction, are misused, or fail.
--Avionics always seem to have a weak link in electrical contacts, switches, and cables.
--Weather has a unique ability to confound the latest technology's ability to make accurate predictions.
--Pilot Proficiency:
--Papers, legality, currency,
--Getting behind the aircraft, loss of position/situational awareness, inadequate fuel.
--Flying beyond capability of aircraft or pilot.
--Unjustified reliance on knowledge level, scud running, showing off.
--Flying below minimum safe altitudes.

Marginal Conditions
You must learn your own comfort limits. Keep track of the weather through Flight Watch after takeoff. If visibility drops you might consider canceling the flight. Poor visibility is the most likely cause of becoming lost. The hazard of being lost lies in the mental and emotional stress it puts on the pilot. Preflight planning that selects viable checkpoints can negate this stress. Use as many navigational methods and aids as you can.

When planning a flight use a sectional in conjunction with any weather pictures obtained. It lets you know the terrain you need to fly over. It shows where airports are in relation to weather and it provides easier selection of alternate routes.

Fly defensively by selecting off airway routes and selected altitudes. Turn on lights. Make occasional wing waves to get a better look around. Monitor frequencies of ATC and nearby airports. Telling the world you are flying by does no damage.
1. Look for traffic
2. Use your lights
3. Avoid congestion
4. Track your time
5. Follow your route
6. Fly your altitude

Emergencies Do Happen
If you should have an emergency, don't hesitate, declare an emergency. Student pilots are overly reluctant to declare an emergency when they should because they have 'concerns'. An emergency for a student pilot may not be an emergency for an experienced pilot. An emergency is whenever the safe outcome of flight is in doubt. When in doubt, it is an emergency, declare it and do a CCCC (Climb, Communicate, Confess, Comply) Use the frequency you are on (not ATIS or AWOS) or 121.5. If your concern is the FAA, you should understand that you are more likely to create an FAA inquiry by not declaring than by declaring.

The declaration of an emergency gives you all available assistance, plus the authorization to violate, in the name of safety, any regulations. More pilots have died from failing to declare an emergency than from making the declaration. When the FAA find that the declaration was justified that will be the end of it
An Emergency is not an Emergency
There is no FAR definition of emergency. The AIM says an emergency is a distressful situation. I have flown in several distressful situations that the FAA would not consider emergencies. Once a passenger had a bladder infection and once a pilot had a gas-filled tooth that was under expansion pressure at altitude. Distressful situations but emergencies they were not. The only emergency recognized by the FAA is one that concerns flight safety. If the flight situation is in doubt and you are running out of options--declare an emergency because you are lost but never because you need the nearest bathroom.

In another area of this site I have written about such situations and that the FAA now allows the use of the word 'immediate' in your communications to indicate that you are effectively requesting priority from ATC.

Some of the most useless things in flying are, fuel in the ground, altitude above you, runway behind you and something you have at home but need now.

An FAA Accident
Once someone gets aboard an aircraft for flight until everyone is clear of the aircraft an FAA accident can happen.
If any person is seriously hurt or dies it is an FAA accident. Where the aircraft is substantially damaged in structure (not skin) or a major component requires replacement it is an FAA accident. Over half of aircraft accidents occur at times other than in flight. That statement alone should warn you to be careful on the ground. Historically, propellers kill one person a month. A gear up landing that damages only propeller and skin is not considered an accident.

An FAA incident is anything that happens less than an accident. An FAA reportable incident is where damage is more than $25,000. Damage to landing gear or propeller is not reportable. Any accident, reportable incident or incident can get you a visit from the FAA and your insurance company.

Accidents Happen
Accidents are never caused by a single factor. A chain of events wrapped into a ball of factors causes accidents. Under the current airspace environment 75% near misses are 'stochastic' or caused by chance. The remaining 25% are deterministic and determined by the flying situation. This means that the probabilities are that sixty planes in the airspace available in the U. S. will collide every year. This totals thirty accidents or about one for every million flights. Half of all persons involved survive. Even these odds can be improved. Probability is one serious accident every 65,000 flying hours. Most dangerous period is 50 to 500 hours.

The ATC system is designed to keep air carriers from colliding with other airplanes. The independence of VFR flying is sacrificed for controlled safety when operating under the ATC system. Every day, in the U.S. there are at least five aircraft accidents and one aviation related death.

Pre-Accident Sequence
The recognition of how previous accidents have occurred and knowing how a sequence of mistakes had an inevitable end is essential pilot knowledge.

--Contradictory data:
There is a perceptual conflict between what is said, done, or perceived. There is a perceived time problem perhaps having to do with weather, fuel or scheduling.

-- Focused attention:
You attend to only one aspect of flight due to its perceived importance. Stress from any source, emergency or otherwise makes it so you are unable to consider options or other aspects of cockpit resource management. A distraction does this. A trivial anomaly can divert and focus attention from the primary task of flying the plane.

-- That feeling of uncertainty:
You become unsure of where your are, what to do, or your capability to perform. You are now under stress, with focused attention and unable to reasonably consider all available options. That is, unless you have pre-planned what to do.

--Failing to do responsibility # 1, fly the plane:
Letting the routine lead to absent minded procedures,

--Eyes outside cockpit:
The eyes must be kept moving in and out, left and right. Learn to make instant reads of your instruments and checklists. Use a heads-up display of sectionals and plates
--Avoid creative flying:
Know your performance limits and capabilities, Know those of your aircraft especially regarding maintenance and discrepancies. Know the FARs both by the word and by practical application.

--Unrealized expectations:
Preconceived expectation of time, clearance, distance, fuel, altitude, weather, or capability are not being met. Failure to make appropriate decisions early on.

--Non-adherence to standard procedures:
Standards have been developed for efficiency and safety for all concerned. Failure to follow procedures increases everyone's risk.

Cockpit and radio communication may be "unheard", misinterpreted, or ignored.

Accident Frequency
1. Improper use of flight controls/brakes on the ground
2. Improper level off: landing flare
3. Failure to avoid objects in air/on ground
4. Failure to maintain flying speed
5. Operations to/from/on unsuitable terrain

1. The skill level available was insufficient to maintain control.
2. A casual attitude toward safety.
3. Acceptance of non-precise control.
4. Unwilling to devote resources to improvement.

Order of Flying Accident Likelihood
First Third

1. Air contamination of fuel tanks
2. Loss of visual reference
3. Flight close to ground
4. Collusion between aircraft (VFR)
5. Fuel aboard but not getting to engine

Second Third
1. VFR into IFR with poor approach procedure
2. VFR into IFR stall/spin in pattern
3. VFR into IFR flying into ground in weather
4. VFR into IFR loss of control on takeoff in weather
5. Loss of control in weather

Third Third
1. Turbulence
2. VFR into IFR situational awareness
3. VFR into IFR instrument failure
4. Night collusion with ground
5. VFR into IFR failure of static system

Every pilot should have a personal anti-accident program consisting of maintaining proficiency by flying on a regular basis. Know and follow the rules that have been built on a history of aviation accidents. Know the minimum and maximum performance limits of your aircraft. Don't take a risk that you don't need to take. Study the literature.

Controlled Accidents
The pilot who makes a precautionary landing in lieu of a forced landing has reduced the statistical fatality rate by a factor of 1,600.
You have twice as much chance of survival in a forced landing on land as opposed to ditching. A controlled flight into terrain where the major objective is to preserve life over aircraft has the best chance of doing both. The structure of an aircraft is designed to preserve cockpit integrity. People will survive inside the cockpit if they are properly secured. Bouncing inside the cockpit kills.

A secured pilot or passenger can survive a 9-G impact. An aircraft that slides just the width of a street before stopping is survivable. Avoiding anything before hitting the ground under control is a high priority. Try to be on the ground before hitting anything. Once on the ground you will have little say as to what happens. It is best not to flip over, to crunch aircraft parts in absorption of impact, and to have pre-planned fire prevention and door opening.

When Everything Stops
One area of every accident situation is most often never planned for but should be. It is, what to do after everything stops moving.
Get out and move to the rear from the aircraft.
1. Do whatever will reduce/prevent further injury.
2. Quickest possible medical aid.
3. Contact authorities, local and FAA
4. Care and preservation of aircraft.

Common Causes of Accidents
--Failure to maintain flying speed
--Poor planning
--Improper flare on landing
--Failure to go-around
--Fuel management
--Miss-judgment of distance or speed
--Unsuitable terrain selection
--Incorrect control operation
--Failure to control the controllable

Common Elements of All Accidents
--Failure of the PIC to use his command position.
--Inability to select viable options due to distraction.
--Focus on minor aspect dilutes watchfulness of all aspects.
--Improper or failure to use cockpit resources.
--Unwillingness to use all resources.
--Insufficient use of communication
--Inappropriate reactions to the unexpected.
--Training that left the pilot unprepared for reality.
--Safe is not the same as risk free. A pretzel can kill.
--Use or non-use of flaps has never been a major factor of an accident
--Because of effect on glide, gear position and propeller pitch make a difference in glide distance.
--There are at least fifteen system factors that make for aircraft problems leading to accidents.
--Studies have shown that an accident can have as many as twenty events having a direct responsibility
--Every accident has a first occurrence
--Every accident has a lesson that can be learned anew what should have been learned before.
--The little things make a big difference in complex aircraft.
--In any accident-chain of events you must know where you are in the chain in order to break it.
--The FAA/NTSB always get to Second Guess everything you do.

Maneuvering Accident Situations
---Target fixation is the over-riding cause of maneuvering accidents
---Target fixation causes pilot to wait too long to change direction.
---In combat, survivable strafing is an important flying skill.
---The Va that is unknown and not designed for a banking maneuver
---Unknown is the aircraft history of exceeding Va
---Distractions that cause instinctive control movements such as the mike button
---Distractions that result in loss of altitude such as just leaning forward in the seat.
---Do your checklists at specific points well before you become pressed by radio and traffic
---Learn the critical safe altitude minimums in all directions around your home field.
---Learn the critical safe altitude minimums in good weather to use at night and poor conditions.
---Trying to locate something on the ground
---Taking pictures while flying plane
---Formation flight is most common mid-air accident source
---Formation flight accidents are only 2% of maneuvering accidents.
---Nearly 40% of the stall spin accidents begin near 250 feet AGL.
---Only one percent of maneuvering accidents occur in what might be called ‘legitimate’ f light
---You should not be turning below 1000 AGL since no spin recovery is possible.
---Airport pattern arrivals, procedures, departures
---CFIT controlled flight into terrain
---Where training fails and bad judgment succeeds
---Nearly half occur during stall/spin practice/training
---10% during aerobatics
---1/3 during buzzing
---5% occur in common airport practice areas.
---28% of stall/spin accidents occur on takeoff
---20% of stall/spin accidents occur on approach
---Formation flight requires uncommon specialized training and experience. Don’t!
---Turns in density altitude situations are far more likely to result in a stall/spin
---Canyon flying is inherently dangerous if flown below the rim
---Only commercial pilots have a disproportionate number of maneuvering accidents
---Read somewhere that student pilots are more likely to have accidents when with an instructor

Survival Checklist

The Six C’s of Survival
---Confess that you have a problem
---Message Format
---Mayday, Mayday, Mayday
Position or last known position and route
---Magnetic Heading
---Indicated airspeed
---Available fuel
---Kind of problem
---People aboard
---Help desired
---Continue repeating
---Climb to increase radio range.
---Communicate on 121.5
---Conserve resources
---Comply with instructions/suggestions
---Consult survival references

S---Happens to You, too
---Flight plan?
---Who knows what your plans are?
---Position reports and alternate airports.
---Survival items?
---Aircraft condition
---Choose where to have your accident
---Check ELT and antenna
---Clothing etc.
---Cell Phone/extra batteries
---Signal devices
---Fire starters
---Get shelter
---Water over food
---Take inventory and survey area
---What can you expect of search and rescue
---Spending your first day
---Do you have your positive mental attitude with you?
---Stay with aircraft
---Use indicators to show where you go, if you go
---Conserve body water and energy (rest)

Use Common Sense
---File complete flight plan and tell a friend your plans or alternate plans
---Stick to planned/expected route and notify of changes
---Give position reports and close/open plans at each stop
---Check weather and accept no-fly option
---Have emergency/survival equipment and plan
---Make your presence known by buzzing homes and signals
---Use contrast to mark your location
---Stay with aircraft if you have done all of above.
---Your goal is to stay alive

Space blankets
Ponchos/solar water
Socks, gloves and head cover

The Enemy
Your mind…imagination, fears, attitudes…will to live
Temperature –within 12-degree range…get into shelter
Injury…mobility, self help…conserve resources
Disease—fought by body
Food is lowest priority
Two quarts of water required even at rest
Rest to conserve resources

Emergency Response
---What you do first affects everything afterwards
---Perception by eye and ear of problem
---Tension, no sweat, adrenaline, heart rate up,

Survival Necessities
Positive attitude… most variable results
Oxygen…3 to 6 minutes
Shelter not there…3 to 4 hours
Rest …30 hours
Water…3 days
Food…3 weeks+

Fear Has Symptoms
---Irritability, hostility, talkativeness changing to speechless, laughing into crying, confusion into forgetfulness, flight, panic into stupor
---Fast pulse, breathless, dilation, tension, fatigue
---Sweat, dry mouth, butterflies, faintness, nausea, vomiting

Response and Options
---Methodical, precise and sequential use of checklist, or
---Refusal to accept situation as bad or even happening
---Panic with frozen limbs and mind

Survival is Pre-Determined by What You Are
---How and what you think will control what happens
---Come to the accident with a goal and the goal will keep you going.
---The best goal will give meaning and purpose to staying alive
---The goal of a survivor must be beyond rescue
---The survivor has self-programmed himself beyond childhood concerns
Your Fears
---Fear is both normal and acceptable
---Control yourself and the situation through positive action
---Proficiency in what you do will give confidence
---Know your options and the odds when selecting them.
---Keep informed of changes and effect they have on outcome
---Never stop trying to better your situation
---Be realistic and take care of others with you first
---Set for your companions things to do that have immediate results.
---Create comfort zones to fit the individual including yourself
---Expect emotional drain after use of high energy; rest, rest, rest
---Expect shock and treat with warmth, fluids and feet elevated.

The Fears of Others
---Mutual support helps everyone
---Set rules to be followed for common good
---Thinking as a team is the way to go
---Give encouragement without sympathy
---we are in this together and will get out together

Mind Set is Essential
---Self-confidence is first essential
---Have a positive self image of yourself
---Get comfortable and make it more so
---Have positive values, habits and attitudes
---Set realistic goals for the situation
---Make your decisions and choices positive
---Clean air to breath is essential
---Maintain body temperature using shelter
---Conserve your energies by resting selectively
---Maintain body fluids by drinking often
---Food is not as essential as we think

Pre-Planning Your Accident Survival
---Doing today to prepare for tomorrow
---Flight route and crash area selection
---Emergency kit, first aid, tools, textbook
---Filing flight plan and verbal intentions
---Know your limits
---Flight training and survival training
---Aircraft maintenance

The Accident
---Aircraft configuration
---Selection of impact area
---Cockpit and passenger security
----Use of radio
---Controlled impact
----Use fragile/collapse aircraft parts to take shock
---Clearing aircraft
---Assessment of situation
---First aid kit/text
---Checklist of procedures

First Aid
---Keep Dry
---Keep warm
---Stop bleeding with direct pressure (95% success rate)
---Clean with sterile water and bandage
---Hot or cold on pain points
---Prevent shock by lowering head except for head injury
---Immobilize all joint or bone injuries
---For burns maintain fluids in body.

Post Accident
---Self-confidence and positive attitude
---Shelter(Find fallen tree) 90-degrees to wind
---Small, cramped and uncomfortable conserves energy
---Wood is the best insulator from hot or cold
---Think, improvise and improve
---Insulate the floor against hot or cold
---Two feet below or above surface is best
---Environmental improvements
---Area survey
---Shock, rest and recovery time
---Conservation of energy, keep clothes on and dry
__Conservation of items
---Body Management

Average Time of Initiation of Search
Use of flight plan doubles survivor rate
---IFR 40 minutes
---VFR 5hrs 20 min.
---No plan 32 hrs 29 min
Time to Find
---IFR 9 hrs
---VFR 38 hrs. 20 min
---No plan 3 days, 22 hrs
Canadian searches much like U.S.
Mexican searches take longer to start

Emergency Kit
---Garbage bags/tarp
---Flashlight with replacements
---Clear plastic bag
---1st Aid Kit
---Fire starter
---Signal capability
Food/Energy Kit
---Two quarts water per day
---Metal cooking pot
---100 survival items in pot
---CDs as reflectors

Symptoms of Body Water Loss 1 to 5% of weight
---75% of weight is water
---At 2.5% body water loss causes 25% decrease in capability.
---Thirst to discomfort to slow movement to hot skin, to
          sleepiness to rise in pulse rate to nausea
Heat Loss Factors
---Conduction #1 cause by touching colder things
---Radiation by exposed areas with 50% by head
---Convection by air currents
---Evaporation body water into vapor
---Respiration by breathing

Survival Requires Knowledge, Skill and Luck
Wind speed
---1 to 3 mph smoke shows wind direction
---4-7 feel wind on face
---8-12 leaves in motion
---13-18dust and snow raised
---19-24 small trees sway wavelets on water
---25-31 large branches in motion, white caps
---32-46 Large trees in motion, snow blowing
---47-54 branches break, waves
--- 55-63 trees fall
Wind Chill
Wind 15mph +20F = -5F requires proper clothing
Wind 15mph +0F =-36F Increased danger
Wind 15mph + -10F = -45F Danger of exposed flesh
---Water is primary concern
---Shield neck, head and eyes
---Improve present location
---Survey area before moving
---Leave note and direction sign
---Shade and wait/rest
---Heavy work at night
---Digging is counter productive
---Wait for aircraft to cool
---Study situation of health, weather, capability
---Avoid sun and heat injury
---Think, then act
---Learn body signals of stress
---Conserve yourself and equipment
---Protect and collect resources
---Buried meat in sand (6") good 72 hours
---Drink but don’t urinate
---Find/make shelter
---Check ELT mount and antenna connection
---Any short piece of metal will work as antenna
---Use color, smoke, reflectors
---Resting,100 degrees, 5 days plus one/half day per quart of water
---Night Walk, 3 days plus one/half day per quart of water
---Water is primary concern
---Collect water keep it liquid
---Melt snow on dark surface with sun
---Purified if boiled one minute per 1000’ altitude
---Purified if chlorine taste
---Drink water often
---Improve present location
---Survey area before moving(take food)
---Leave note and direction sign
---Triangular fires, smoke, whistles, lights are signals for help
---Wall in cooking fires and use reflector for warming fire.
---Signals may be of color, contrast, size, straight, unusual, moving…
---For a fire you need tinder, kindling, fuel, dry rocks
---Get materials, keep it dry, be patient
---Star shaped fire is easiest
---Use matches, prism, flint, battery
---Resting,100 degrees, 5 days plus one/half day per quart of water
---Night Walk, 3 days plus one/half day per quart of water
--Avoid both wet and sweat
---Layered dark clothing
---Avoid weather make shelter
---Heavy work at night
---Digging is counter productive
---Nibble food and sip warm liquids
---Several small fires warm better than one large
---Avoid metal when cold, use insulation for body
---Cover head when feet are cold
---Improve head and body clothing (socks on head)
---Protect head, neck, kidneys, wool is best
---Learn body signals of stress
---Avoid cold injury
---Grease skin
---Resting,50 degrees, 10 days plus one day per quart of water
---Night Walk, 50 degrees, 8 days plus one/half day per quart of water
---Avoid anxiety
---Avoid imaginations
---Fear is enemy of judgment
---Help yourself to do the right things
---Be positive and determined in thoughts and actions
---Your aircraft is your supply source
---Gas/oil are fuel
---Immediate comfort first
Rescue Options
---Who knows, where and when
---How far; how long
---Improve aircraft visibility with reflectors
---Stay with aircraft

--1/3 of all training accidents occur on the runway.
---Fuel exhaustion accidents result in fatalities only 10% of the time
---VFR into IMC results in loss of aircraft almost every time
---VFR into IMC results in fatalities 50% of the time
---C-172 do not have any more IMC type accidents but passengers add to fatality rate
---One in five of PA-28 140/Warrior accidents were related to engine failure
---Per 100,000 hours C-172 has 3.3 accidents and fatal rate of .54
---Katana has unproven rate as good as C-172

 Unintended Consequences 
Decades ago a plane crash had left several infants dead. Something had to be done to prevent this from happening again. Officials brought in experts to analyze what precautions could've been implemented to save these babies' lives. They all concluded: seatbelts. So politicians raced to D.C. and passed a law to require every seat on every plane to have seatbelts. But in the months that followed, more infants died than normal. A deeper look reveals why. The cost to put a seatbelt on every seat got added to individual ticket prices. So ticket prices rose and as flights became more costly, demand fell. If they could get to their destination without flying, people chose instead to drive. And since driving has a different fatality rate than flying, the unintended outcome suddenly made sense.

Abnormal Situation
— A situation that is not of an emergency nature, but which involves the potential for an emergency that may be deferred.

Accident — An occurrence associated with the operation of an aircraft which takes place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the intention of flight and all such persons have disembarked, and in which any person suffers death or serious injury, or in which the aircraft receives substantial damage.

Accident Chain — The series of events leading up to an accident that in some way contributed to the accident’s occurrence. The elimination of one of the events in the chain may prevent the accident.

Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM) — A systematic approach to the mental process used by aircraft pilots to consistently determine the best course of action in response to a given set of circumstances.

Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) — The event that occurs when an airworthy aircraft, under the control of a qualified pilot, is flown into terrain (or water or obstacles) with inadequate awareness on the part of the pilot of the impending collision.
Emergency — A distress or an urgency condition which requires immediate action.

Fuel Exhaustion — When all available fuel on the airplane is depleted because of improper preflight planning, or failure to adjust to unexpected conditions during flight.

Fuel Starvation — When the engine stops due to an interruption of the fuel supply to the engine, even though fuel remains available in one or more of the aircraft’s fuel tanks.

Hazardous Attitudes — Studies have identified five hazardous attitudes' that can interfere with a pilot’s ability to make sound decisions and exercise authority properly. The five hazardous attitudes: anti-authority, impulsivity, invulnerability, macho, and resignation.

Incident — An occurrence, other than an accident, associated with the operation of an aircraft which affects, or could affect, the safety of operations.

Risk ---What lies in the future

Runway Incursion — Any occurrence at an airport involving an aircraft, vehicle, person, or object on the ground that creates a collision hazard, or results in loss of separation, with an aircraft that is taking off, intending to take off, landing, or intending to land.

Spatial Disorientation — A feeling of balance instability caused when there is a conflict between the information relayed by your central vision scanning the instruments, and your peripheral vision which has virtually no references with which to establish orientation (as in IFR conditions).

Wake Turbulence — Disturbed air resulting from the passage of an aircraft through the atmosphere. The term includes vortices, thrust stream turbulence, jet blast, jet wash, propeller wash, and rotor wash, both on the ground and in the air.

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